The Calm Before 2014's Tech Storm: Apple Will Bring the Rain

There's a lot on Apple's plate that should make for big, wild 2014 that will settle the innovation question. The iPhone will get a bigger screen, possibly made of sapphire glass. The iWatch likely will hit, possibly overrunning the competition in the category. OS X will be due for a refresh, as will the MacBook Air, MacBook Pro and the iPad. And Apple TV may finally come into its own.

There's a lot shaping up for Apple this year, and it's going to be wild. In fact, there's so much going on at Infinite Loop in Cupertino these days that it makes me believe that 2014 will be the first post-Steve Jobs year when Apple -- in the eyes of the broader tech world -- stops dancing around and finally brings the rain.

For starters, the profit-generating juggernaut that goes by the name of "iPhone" will ship in a new form factor with a bigger screen. This will hit just when a huge number of Apple-loving consumers are shifting the bulk of their Internet activity to their mobile device, which means they'll upgrade in droves.

Apple doesn't even have to entice big-screen Android users to make iPhone 6 the fastest and best-selling mobile device ever.

Apple can pump up iPhone sales in the U.S. next year by 30 percent with a bigger iPhone, suggested Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, and this is if 80 percent of iPhones sold go to upgrading customers.

It gets better. The sapphire glass manufacturer in Arizona appears to be shipping product to China, which means the displays of the big new iPhone 6 really could be made of sapphire glass. If sapphire is as scratch-resistant as they say -- better than Gorilla Glass -- this is a big leap forward over the competition. Huge, in fact.

This is important for a couple of key reasons: First, Apple invested heavily in GT Advanced Technologies, reportedly footing the bill for hundreds of sapphire furnaces capable of churning out screens. Second, Apple has snapped up sapphire glass supplies. Unless the competition is actively investing in sapphire production, Apple might build a significant lead. Either way, you can bet that we'll be seeing some sort of cool promotional video at iPhone 6 launch time.

While we're at it, here's something I haven't heard anywhere else: When the iPhone 6 ships with a bigger, easier-to-use screen, it'll give Apple's App Store and iTunes ecosystem another boost, too -- simply through a better customer experience.

So the Apple Money Machine -- the iPhone -- will rev up to the red line this year and coast through 2015 ... that's it?

No way.

Enter the iWatch

While everyone has been talking up the mythical iWatch as competitors deliver new smartwatches and exercise bands, Apple has remained behind closed doors. Instead of getting here first, Apple has quietly been hiring medical, exercise and engineering talent, as well as patenting potential innovations that could be applied to an iWatch.

Will Apple actually deliver a wrist-worn device this year? It's hard to imagine that it will sit out 2014. Apple CEO Tim Cook has hinted at new product categories, and an iWatch seems to be a slam dunk.

There's more, though. Longtime fitness partner Nike just dropped Fuelband manufacturing in favor of working on software only. This is a big signal that Nike knows the iWatch is on the way this year and is making a business adjustment for it.

The New Mac Experience This Fall

The PC-decline-defying MacBook Air just got a teeny processor update. That's not a big deal now -- it just makes room for a more expensive MacBook Air with Retina Display to have a profitable spot come fall.

More to the point, the MacBook Pro is ready for an update, too, but the key action will likely center around the redesign of Mac OS X. While iOS got its refresh last year, OS X 10.10 is ready for 2014.

One report now suggests that OS X 10.10 will take center stage at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in June.

September is the traditional time of year that Apple releases new iPads. Bare minimum, we can expect an A8 generation of Apple's own processors, which should bring better performance and battery life. I would not be surprised if Apple finally came up with a new keyboard or keyboard/case option, both because there is an industry demand for it and because there've been multiple rumblings about it.

Meanwhile, while Microsoft Research has posted a video of an augmented mechanical keyboard that can sense gestures both on and above the device, AppleInsider found an AppleU.S. patent application for a multifunctional keyboard assembly, too.

Will the keyboard tech show up in Macs this year? In a keyboard available for pairing with an iPad? If so, this is like extra frosting on a cake.

What About the Apple TV?

While rumors of a full-size Apple-created HDTV have faded away, pretty much everyone expects a major Apple TV set-top box update. Not only did Cook publicly remove the Apple TV from "hobby" status this year in a quarterly financial report, but Apple also threw down the gauntlet with its own Amazon Fire TV unit.

The Fire TV lets you search for content with your voice, and the remote control is smart enough to let you play Android-based games on your HDTV. Plus, Amazon is actively building its own ecosystem of content and games, even going so far to develop a game and create a dedicated console-style game controller.

Will Apple sit on its hands here? Doesn't seem likely.

Apple can jump out ahead with a wicked-fast new processor, Siri integration, and by opening up the Apple TV to developers for new apps. If Apple delivers on its own gaming controller specifications -- with or without third-party controllers -- then the company can make a stronger move to capture game time in the living room.

All of these moves are totally doable for Apple this year. Might we get a taste at WWDC in June? I hope so, but rumors are trending toward an OS X fixation. A new Apple TV world in time for fall programming and holiday sales could technically work better anyway. Wild card? Some sort of broadcast or cable-TV content deal.

Apple Is 'On the Prowl'

As revealed at Apple's quarterly conference call with investors last month, Apple bought 24 companies in 18 months -- several of which are secret, and therefore important to new products or services.

"Obviously," Cook noted, "We're on the prowl."

What might these new companies offer Apple? If it is attempting to keep their identities a secret, it's for a good reason -- one that usually leads to a new product or service.

Speaking of financial reports -- until now, Apple has weathered months of getting beat up by Wall Street analysts for a slowing rate of growth in both its iPhone and iPad sales. It has started to manage Wall Street expectations more proactively by doing things like increasing its dividend payments and buying back much of its own stock.

Plus, Apple will issue a 7-for-1 stock split that should drop the price of a single share to under US$100, making it more accessible to a broader range of buyers -- and potentially get Apple added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The point?

As Apple starts releasing a large batch of products and upgrades this year -- and as relatively new ones like CarPlay start hitting the streets -- public perception will rocket even higher. What might that stock split mean then? I don't play on Wall Street, but I have some guesses.

Any way I look at it -- and this is even if Apple does not release any new game changer product category that is off the radar -- Apple seems to be orchestrating a huge 2014.

Snapchat's Antidisappearing measures

Snapchat Adds New Features to Keep Users From Disappearing

Snapchat has expanded its feature set, letting users actually chat with one another instead of just trading images. It not only wants to attract more users -- its estimated 26 million pales in comparison to Facebook Messenger's 200 million -- but also to get them to spend more time there. "Engagement is what advertisers are looking at now," said tech analyst Rob Enderle. "It has massive value

Snapchat built its popularity on pictures that disappear, but new features added to the latest version of the program shows its creators want it to be more than a one-trick app.

Both text and video chatting on Thursday became available in the mobile app for Android and iOS devices. "Until today, we felt that Snapchat was missing an important part of conversation: presence," reads the company blog. "There's nothing like knowing you have the full attention of your friend while you're chatting."

With the app's new Chat feature, you can right-swipe a contact's name in the program's inbox and start text chatting. True to its ephemeral roots, when you leave the chat session, its content disappears, although you can save it with a tap or screen grab before it self-destructs.

Chat also includes a "Here" button that lights up when the person you're communicating with is participating in the chat. When both parties in a Chat session tap Help at the same time, a video chat session is opened up.

"They're finally putting the chat in Snapchat," Rob Enderle, president and principal analyst for the Enderle Group, told TechNewsWorld.

A Road More Traveled

In adding the new features to Snapchat, its developers appear to be following a traditional trajectory.

"Any communication platform always relies first on growing users and then expanding the communication experience for growth once user growth slows down," explained Jan Dawson, chief analyst with Jackdaw Research.

"Niche, single-mode communication platforms don't tend to last very long, and they almost always end up turning into something more," he told TechNewsWorld. "Snapchat is following a well-trodden path previously followed by Skype and others."

Although there are no apps that squarely compete with Snapchat, competition may have contributed to the app's expansion.

"When you look at all the messaging providers, one of the things you see is they start off with a very basic set of features and they hook users that way," Gartner Research Director Brian Blau told TechNewsWorld.

"Ultimately, a lot of these apps start to look the same over time and they have to expand. The types of features that Snapchat added are that kind of expansion and something we'll see more over time," he said.

"Adding these really brings Snapchat up to a similar level with its competitors," Blau added.

Gold in Engagement

Future expansion of Snapchat's feature set will be necessary for its survival.

"If they don't expand, over time people will come to like the other features they see in their competitors," Blau said. "So it's a bit of a features race."

With the new features, Snapchat is creating a distinctive app that could draw users from competitors and improve the engagement of its existing fans.

"It's primarily used by people with a very specific use case in mind -- sharing pictures in an ephemeral way -- and there's not much else like that out there," Jackdaw's Dawson said.

"But this expands that experience into other spheres," he continued, "and as such may capture some usage from other apps and strengthen the core Snapchat experience. It also provides fresh reasons for people to use the service."

Snapchat not only wants more users -- one estimate pegs its user base at 26 million, which is considerably smaller than Facebook Messenger's 200 million -- but also wants them to spend more time with the app.

"Engagement is what advertisers are looking at now," Enderle said. "It has massive value."

Accumulating such value could be important to Snapchat down the road. Although it already has spurned one suitor -- Facebook offered Snapchat's cofounders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy US$3 billion for the company -- that doesn't mean a sellout might be off the table in the future.

"They still generate little revenue at this point," Julie Äsk, a vice president and principal analyst for e-business at Forrester Research, told TechNewsWorld, so "an exit through purchase may be their revenue plan."